We Asked AI To Fix India’s Fighter Jet Problems

In the wake of a SECRET report submitted by the Defence Secretary to the Ministry of Defence (MoD), outlining urgent recommendations to address the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) fighter jet crunch, we decided to turn to a non-human source for solutions—AI. We asked the world’s leading AI models how they would fix the IAF’s air power gaps, balancing immediate needs with long-term modernisation. Their responses, blending global defence strategies with cutting-edge tech insights, offer a fascinating, and sometimes provocative, roadmap for the future of India’s air dominance. We’ve reproduced them here without changes.

The Indian Air Force (IAF) faces a pressing need to boost its fighter squadron numbers, with the current strength well below the sanctioned 42 squadrons. Given the urgency of the threat environment from both China and Pakistan, a multi-pronged approach is necessary. Here’s a structured action plan that balances capability, cost, and timelines:

OpenAI ChatGPT

1. Fast-Track the Tejas Mk1A Induction

Action:
• Ensure the first batch of Tejas Mk1A aircraft begins delivery by 2025 and ramp up production to deliver at least 16-18 aircraft per year.
• Encourage HAL to outsource components to private industry to speed up assembly.
• Parallelly, operationalize more maintenance and training infrastructure for Tejas.

Outcome:
• 83 Tejas Mk1A inducted by 2028, replacing MiG-21 squadrons and forming at least 6 squadrons.

2. Accelerate the MRFA (114 Fighter Jets) Procurement

Action:
• Convert the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) program into a Government-to-Government (G2G) deal to expedite selection and delivery.
• Prioritize local manufacturing under “Make in India” with private sector participation (e.g., Tata-BAE for Typhoon, L&T-Dassault for Rafale).
• Select a single fighter to avoid logistical complexity. Likely contenders: Rafale F4, F-15EX, or Gripen E.
• Begin induction by 2027, with at least 12-18 aircraft annually.

Outcome:
• 6 squadrons by 2032, boosting airpower significantly.

3. Expand the Rafale Fleet (Rafale F4)

Action:
• Order at least 2 additional Rafale squadrons (~36 jets) for the eastern and northern sectors via a direct purchase to maintain standardization with existing Rafale fleet.
• Push for faster delivery from Dassault (within 3 years instead of 5).

Outcome:
• 2 squadrons operational by 2028, increasing overall Rafale strength to 4 squadrons.

4. Develop and Scale Up Tejas Mk2

Action:
• Freeze final design in 2025 and fly the prototype by 2025 to prevent delays.
• Increase HAL’s assembly lines to ensure serial production starts by 2029.
• Induct 120 Tejas Mk2 to replace Jaguars and MiG-29s.

Outcome:
• 6 squadrons operational by 2035, securing indigenous strength.

5. Prioritize AMCA Development for Future Readiness

Action:
• Maintain 2028 first flight and ensure serial production begins by 2035.
• Secure foreign collaboration (e.g., GE for engines, Dassault/BAE for stealth tech).
• Aim for at least 2 squadrons of AMCA Mk1 by 2035, and full-scale Mk2 production by 2040.

Outcome:
• 5th-generation capability with 7 squadrons of AMCA by 2045.

• Bridge the Capability Gap with Additional Su-30MKI Upgrades

Action:
• Upgrade all 260 Su-30MKIs with Uttam AESA radar, EW suites, and Astra Mk2 missiles to maintain relevance.
• Consider a limited additional order of 18-24 Su-30MKIs from HAL to cover attrition losses.

Outcome:
• Maintains strength of 13+ squadrons of Su-30MKI till 2040.

7. Strengthen Drone & Force Multipliers

Action:
• Acquire more Archer & Heron TP drones for persistent ISR and strike capability.
• Expedite CATS Warrior drone program to supplement manned fighters.
• Accelerate Airborne Early Warning (AEW) aircraft induction for battle-space management.

Outcome:
• Enhances overall air dominance & squadron effectiveness.

Projected Squadron Strength Timeline

Year Squadron Strength Key Additions
2025 31 squadrons Tejas Mk1A begins
2028 35+ squadrons 2 Rafale, 6 Tejas Mk1A
2032 40 squadrons 6 MRFA, 6 Tejas Mk2
2035 42 squadrons AMCA Mk1 begins
2040 45+ squadrons AMCA Mk2, additional MRFA

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Final Recommendations
• Speed & efficiency in procurement: Avoid delays by moving key programs (MRFA, Tejas Mk2, AMCA) under G2G deals or “Strategic Partnership” model.
• Private sector involvement: Scale up India’s defense manufacturing ecosystem with HAL-L&T, Tata-BAE, Adani-Dassault collaborations.
• Logistical Standardization: Minimize excessive fighter diversity to reduce maintenance and supply chain issues.

This approach ensures short-term replenishment, medium-term modernization, and long-term future-proofing, securing IAF’s fighter fleet strength.

X Grok

The IAF faces a critical shortfall, with only 31 fighter squadrons operational against a sanctioned strength of 42, a gap exacerbated by the retirement of ageing aircraft like the MiG-21, MiG-23, and MiG-27, and delays in procurement and indigenous production. Below is a specific action plan across programs, with expected outcomes, designed to address this shortfall pragmatically while balancing immediate needs, indigenous development, and long-term capability.

The IAF’s squadron strength has been declining due to:

• Retirement of Legacy Aircraft: MiG-21 squadrons are nearing complete phase-out (expected by 2025), and other ageing platforms like Jaguars and Mirage-2000s will start retiring by the late 2020s.
• Delayed Indigenous Programs: The Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas Mk1A and Mk2 face production bottlenecks, while the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) is years from operational deployment.
• Geopolitical Pressures: Rising threats from China (e.g., J-20 stealth fighters) and Pakistan necessitate a robust, modern fleet across India’s borders.

The IAF aims for 42 squadrons by 2035, but projections suggest only 35-36 are achievable even with perfect execution of current plans. My action plan focuses on a multi-pronged approach: accelerating indigenous production, strategic foreign procurement, and enhancing private sector involvement.

Action Plan

1. Accelerate and Expand LCA Tejas Program

Actions:

• Increase Production Capacity: Establish a second Tejas Mk1A production line with private sector involvement (e.g., Tata or L&T) alongside Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), targeting 24 aircraft per year (up from 16-18).
• Additional Orders: Place an immediate order for 97 more Tejas Mk1A (beyond the 83 already ordered), as proposed, to equip 5 additional squadrons.
• Fast-Track Mk2 Development: Allocate emergency funding and streamline design approvals to ensure LCA Mk2’s first flight by 2027 and induction by 2032, targeting 6 squadrons (108 aircraft).

Outcomes:

• By 2029, 180 Tejas Mk1A aircraft (10 squadrons) could be operational, replacing retiring MiG-21s and bolstering light fighter numbers.
• By 2035, 108 LCA Mk2 aircraft (6 squadrons) would add a medium-weight 4.5-generation capability, bridging the gap to AMCA.

2. Strategic Foreign Procurement: Rafale Boost

Actions:

• Order 36-54 Additional Rafales: Negotiate a government-to-government deal with France for 2-3 squadrons of Rafale jets (36-54 aircraft) in fly-away condition, leveraging existing infrastructure and training from the 36 already inducted.
• Expedite Delivery: Stipulate delivery starting 2027, with 12 aircraft per year, to address immediate gaps.

Outcomes:

• By 2030, 2-3 additional Rafale squadrons (36-54 aircraft) would enhance multi-role and deep-strike capabilities, particularly along the China border, where long-range precision is critical.
• Strengthens deterrence without over-reliance on delayed Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) tender.

3. Streamline MRFA Program with a Focused Outcome

Actions:

• Reduce Scope: Halve the MRFA requirement from 114 to 57 aircraft (3 squadrons), prioritizing a “Buy Global, Make in India” model with a single contender (e.g., Dassault Rafale or Lockheed Martin F-21).
• Finalize by 2026: Issue the Request for Proposal (RFP) in 2025, select a winner by 2026, and begin deliveries by 2030, with local production starting 2032.

Outcomes:

• By 2035, 57 MRFA aircraft (3 squadrons) would be inducted, adding advanced 4.5-generation fighters with technology transfer, supporting India’s industrial base while avoiding the complexity of a larger tender.

4. Leverage TEDBF for IAF Variant

Actions:

• Develop ORCA Variant: Adapt the Navy’s Twin Engine Deck Based Fighter (TEDBF) into an Omni-Role Combat Aircraft (ORCA) for the IAF, targeting 72-90 aircraft (4-5 squadrons).
• Timeline: First flight by 2028, production from 2033, with private sector co-production (e.g., HAL and a partner like Adani Defence).

Outcomes:

• By 2040, 4-5 squadrons of ORCA (72-90 aircraft) would provide a twin-engine, carrier-capable fighter tailored for IAF needs, enhancing flexibility and numbers without relying on foreign imports.

5. Push AMCA as a Long-Term Backbone

Actions:

• Secure Funding and Partnerships: Fully fund AMCA development, aiming for first flight by 2028 and serial production by 2035, with a goal of 4 squadrons (72 aircraft) by 2040.
• Private Sector Role: Assign prototype production to a private firm (e.g., Tata) to accelerate timelines and reduce HAL’s burden.

Outcomes:

• By 2040, 72 AMCA aircraft (4 squadrons) would introduce 5th-generation stealth capabilities, positioning the IAF to counter advanced threats like China’s J-20.

6. Optimize Existing Fleet

Actions:

• Upgrade Su-30 MKI: Fast-track the Su-30 upgrade program (240 aircraft) with indigenous avionics and weapons, completing by 2032.
• Extend Mirage-2000 and MiG-29 Life: Upgrade and maintain these fleets (approx. 90 aircraft) to serve until 2035-2040.

Outcomes:

• Maintains 14 Su-30 squadrons (252 aircraft) and 4 Mirage/MiG-29 squadrons (72 aircraft) as a robust backbone through the 2030s, offsetting retirements.

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Projected Squadron Strength Timeline

• 2029: 34-35 squadrons (10 Tejas Mk1A, 14 Su-30, 4 Mirage/MiG-29, 2 Rafale, 2-3 additional Rafale).
• 2035: 37-38 squadrons (10 Tejas Mk1A, 6 LCA Mk2, 14 Su-30, 2 Rafale, 2-3 additional Rafale, 3 MRFA).
• 2040: 42-43 squadrons (10 Tejas Mk1A, 6 LCA Mk2, 14 Su-30, 2 Rafale, 2-3 additional Rafale, 3 MRFA, 4-5 ORCA, 4 AMCA).

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Key Enablers

• Private Sector Involvement: Partner with firms like Tata, L&T, or Adani to boost production rates (e.g., 40 jets/year across programs).
• Policy Reforms: Streamline procurement via a dedicated high-level committee (like the one formed in December 2024 under Defence Secretary Rajesh Kumar Singh).
• Budget Allocation: Increase defence capital outlay by 10-15% annually to fund simultaneous programs.

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Why This Plan?

• Balance of Speed and Self-Reliance: Combines quick foreign buys (Rafale) with scaled-up indigenous production (Tejas, ORCA, AMCA).
• Realistic Targets: Aims for 42 squadrons by 2040, acknowledging delays but pushing beyond the 35-36 projected for 2035.
• Strategic Flexibility: Diversifies the fleet across light (Tejas), medium (Rafale, MRFA), and heavy (Su-30, AMCA) categories to meet varied threats.

This plan avoids over-optimism (e.g., expecting AMCA by 2032) and risky gambles (e.g., scrapping indigenous programs for F-35s), focusing instead on executable steps to rebuild IAF strength.

Google Gemini

Addressing the IAF’s fighter squadron deficit requires a multifaceted approach, blending indigenous production with strategic acquisitions. Here’s a potential action plan:
Key Pillars:

• Accelerated Indigenous Production:
• LCA Tejas Program:
  • * Action:* Prioritize and expedite the production of LCA Mk1A and Mk2 variants. Streamline supply chains and increase manufacturing capacity at HAL.
  • * Outcome:* Consistent and rapid induction of Tejas aircraft, forming the backbone of the IAF’s fighter fleet.
• AMCA (Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft):
  • * Action:* Maintain strong funding and support for the AMCA program. Focus on timely development and testing.
  • * Outcome:* Gradual induction of a 5th-generation fighter, enhancing the IAF’s technological edge.
• Strategic Acquisitions:
• Addressing Immediate Gaps:
  • * Action:* While focusing on indigenous production, selective acquisitions of proven platforms can bridge immediate capability gaps. Careful evaluation of available options, with focus on transfer of technology where possible.
  • * Outcome: Maintain a sufficient number of active squadrons while indigenous programs mature.
• Modernization of Existing Fleet:
  • * Action: Continue modernization programs for existing Su-30MKI and MiG-29 fleets. This includes avionics upgrades, weapon integration, and life extension measures.
  • * Outcome: Maximizing the operational lifespan and combat effectiveness of existing assets.
• Enhancing Support Infrastructure:
• Maintenance and Logistics:
  • * Action:* Invest in robust maintenance and logistics infrastructure to ensure high aircraft availability.
  • * Outcome:* Minimize downtime and maximize the operational readiness of the fighter fleet.
• Training and Personnel:
  • * Action:* Expand training facilities and modernize training programs to meet the demands of advanced fighter aircraft.
  • * Outcome:* Ensure a steady supply of skilled pilots and ground crew.
• Drone Integration:
• Action: Increase the integration of combat drones in to the IAF. This would help supplement the manned fighter fleet.
• Outcome: Increase the overall combat abilities of the IAF, and relieve some of the strain on the manned fighter fleet.
  Key Considerations:
• Self-Reliance: Emphasize indigenous development to reduce dependence on foreign suppliers.
• Technological Superiority: Prioritize the acquisition and development of advanced technologies to maintain a competitive edge.
• Financial Planning: Ensure adequate and sustained funding for all programs.
  By implementing this comprehensive action plan, the IAF can effectively boost its fighter squadron numbers and maintain its operational readiness in a dynamic security environment.

Microsoft Co-pilot

To boost its fighter squadron numbers effectively, the Indian Air Force (IAF) could adopt a multi-pronged action plan that balances immediate needs with long-term goals. Here’s a structured approach:

1. Accelerate Indigenous Production
   Programs: Prioritize the production of Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) variants like Tejas Mk-1A and Mk-2, along with the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA).
   Action: Streamline supply chains, involve private sector players to complement Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), and address delays in securing critical components like engines.
   Outcome: Achieve faster delivery timelines, with a target of inducting 40 fighters annually2.
2. Procure Additional Foreign Fighters
   Programs: Finalize the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) deal for 114 4.5-generation fighters, potentially involving Rafale, Gripen, or F-35 platforms.
   Action: Expedite tender processes and ensure technology transfer agreements to establish local production lines.
   Outcome: Bridge the immediate gap in squadron strength while enhancing domestic manufacturing capabilities4.
3. Upgrade Existing Fleet
   Programs: Implement the “Super Sukhoi” upgrade for Su-30MKIs and modernize Jaguar and Mirage-2000 fleets.
   Action: Equip aircraft with advanced avionics, radars, and weapon systems to extend operational life.
   Outcome: Enhance combat readiness and reduce dependency on new acquisitions.
4. Strengthen Force Multipliers
   Programs: Induct more Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) aircraft, mid-air refuelers, and advanced missile systems.
   Action: Collaborate with DRDO and private firms to develop indigenous solutions while considering interim imports.
   Outcome: Improve operational efficiency and extend the reach of existing squadrons2.
5. Focus on Long-Term Self-Reliance
   Programs: Fast-track the AMCA project and invest in 6th-generation fighter technologies.
   Action: Allocate resources for R&D, foster international collaborations for cutting-edge tech, and ensure steady funding.
   Outcome: Establish India as a global leader in aerospace innovation by 20352.
   This comprehensive strategy would not only address the IAF’s immediate needs but also lay the groundwork for sustainable growth and self-reliance in the aerospace sector.